AUD Weekly Forecast Jan 28 ~ Feb 1

Green back's loss was ultimate gain by Aussie dollar.
Last Friday President Trump surprise move to agree to reopen the closed government services. This move sent a severe pull back for US dollar across all its peers.

Last week a strong Australian employment report is booster for AUD. The job created 21.6 thousands, pulled down unemployment to 5.0% from 5.1%.

These moves give the Aussie currency upward swing of 0.21% (0.00147) to close at 0.71812 against USD.

Another matter that will concern AUD is US China trade war. As largest trade partner, anything happens to China also will reflect in Australia economy. Current US threat to increase tariff  from March 1 and expected second round of trade talks in Washington this week will definitely have direct repercussions. These uncertainties will move the currency either up or down 

Also recent reports shows Chinese GDP was lowest since 1990. Any further slip in Dragon's economy would trouble AUD.


  • Tuesday, NAB Business Confidence: This National Australia Bank survey continues to head lower, as the reading of 3 in November was the weakest since May 2016. The slowdown in China could continue to way on business sentiment.
  • Wednesday, CPI: CPI is the primary gauge of consumer spending. CPI has posted modest gains of 0.4% for three successive quarters, and the same gain is expected in Q4. Trimmed Mean CPI, which excludes the most volatile items, is also forecast to post a 0.4% gain.
  • Thursday, Import Prices:  Prices of imported goods feed into consumer prices. The quarterly figure climbed by 1.9% in Q3.  A modest increase of 0.3% is the forecast for Q4. The number does not have a very significant impact on markets after the CPI was already published.
  • Thursday, Private Sector Credit: The indicator dipped to 0.3% in December, its lowest level since July. Another gain of 0.3% is expected in January.
  • Thursday, AIG Manufacturing Index: The Chinese slowdown has weighed on the manufacturing index, which indicated contraction in December, with a score of 49.5 points.
  • Friday, PPI: This inflation indicator surprised in Q3 with a strong gain of 0.8%. This marked the sharpest gain since Q3 of 2015.


AUD/USD may remain above 0.72
AUDUSD 28th January 2019 Asia Session



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