XAUUSD Weaker Greenback Pushing GOLD towards 1325 (31 JAN 2019)

US FED unchanged interest rate keep pushing precious yellow metal further towards 1325. Traders buying mood also keep this bullish momentum.

Opened at 1319.80, claimed upto 1326.30, remain just under 1325.

This January XAUUSD opened at 1282.80 and traced up by 3.35 percent.

XAUUSD Hourly chart on 31st January 2019

USDINR Advances Despite Dovish FED

Indian Rupee opened 70.93, Wednesday closed at 71.22 (0.22 percent lower), now trading at 71.10 (0.18 percent higher)

The US Federal Reserve didn't changed the interest rates as expected at 2.5 percent, the greenback shown dovish movement across the board. Despite this weaker Indian rupee cannot gain any.

Further to this, INR may come under further pressure Indian Government unveiling its interim budget for the 2019/20 fiscal year on Friday. Being a election year, the government may introduce some populist measures in interim budget.

Even exporters selling their earning of US currency, forex traders expect more foreign fund inflow will control surging crude oil prices.

Currently Rupee may touch 71.50 by tomorrow.

USDINR on 31st January 2019

AUDUSD Recover to Green after Aussie CPI

Australian Consumer Price Index came out beating expectations. The quarter to quarter is 0.5%, year to year is 1.8%. Whereas prior expectations was q/q is 0.4% and y/y was 1.7% as I mentioned in AUD Weekly Forecast.

Aussie CPI posted an increased 114.10 Index Points for 4th quarter of 2018 from 113.5 Index Points in 3rd quarter of 2018.

Also US Dollar Index struggles for directions on President Trump's stand on trade war with China and FED Shutdown. DXY is still around 95.x failing to catch up last quarter high.

Further US-China high level Trade Talks to avoid trade war President Trump planned to wage from March 1.

Overall AUD is highly correlated with DXY and it is all depend on Sino-US trade talks/war, stand on Shutdown.

Till then this small correction of +2% expected this January 2019.

AUDUSD Hourly Chart 30th January 2019

XAUUSD (GOLD) Afloats Above new support level 1300

Today GOLD opens at 1302.99 keep claiming touching 1311 and strong buying mood against weaker US Dollar continues. It seems long time resistance 1300 turns to be new support level.

On Monday GOLD price remains unchanged, the gain reached on last Friday. Have to see how the XAU reacts CB Consumer Confidence, which is estimated at 125.0

The US labour markets, for the first time since 1969 records below 200,000 mark. This continues to impress as unemployment claims dropped from 213,000 to 199,000, but failed to influence precious yellow metal price,

XAU USD 29th January 2019

Traders are Bearish on US Dollar. Waiting for Fed Policy Meeting Outcome!

US Dollar Index (DXY) is under stress from FOMC's FED policy meeting and trade talks with China. This pull further to 95.7, traders are cautious on green back waiting for policy outcome on wednesday. As stressed by President Trump if deal failed to raise fund for border wall, another shutdown is ‘certainly an option’.

For the three consecutive session, USD losing its strength from last week high of 96.7, following ECB President Mario Draghi remark.

We have to wait for Federal announcement about Trade Balance Figure, S&P / Case-Shiller Index, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence and weekly report on crude supplies by the API.

All currencies in US Dollar Index basket are doing well against green back.
Euro EUR/USD 1.14300
Japanese yen USD/JPY 109.400
Pound sterling GBP/USD 1.31569
Canadian dollar CAD/USD 0.7536
Swiss franc CHF/USD 1.00773

US Dollar Index (DXY) 

XAU Weekly Forecast Jan 28 ~ Feb 1. Will sustain above $1300 mark?

GOLD seen a remarkable week, as opened $1280.70 and close at $1302.91. Read further GOLD Review.

XAUUSD closed above magical mark $1300 last Friday. Since 15 June 2018 GOLD price remain below 1300 emotional level. Finally manage to breakout because of weaker USD.

This week seems to be real testing time for yellow metal as it has to try hard to turn 1300 resistance into support.

The outcome of 'Federal Open Market Committee' two day policy meeting on January 29 and 30 will affect the price.
The Federal Reserve System may hike rate, but some officials have recently adopted a more dovish tone.
US fourth quarter growth rate on Wednesday
U.S. government employment report for January on Friday
Ongoing US China trade war also have to end before deadline March 1.

XAU/USD Chart 28th January 2019

AUD Weekly Forecast Jan 28 ~ Feb 1

Green back's loss was ultimate gain by Aussie dollar.
Last Friday President Trump surprise move to agree to reopen the closed government services. This move sent a severe pull back for US dollar across all its peers.

Last week a strong Australian employment report is booster for AUD. The job created 21.6 thousands, pulled down unemployment to 5.0% from 5.1%.

These moves give the Aussie currency upward swing of 0.21% (0.00147) to close at 0.71812 against USD.

Another matter that will concern AUD is US China trade war. As largest trade partner, anything happens to China also will reflect in Australia economy. Current US threat to increase tariff  from March 1 and expected second round of trade talks in Washington this week will definitely have direct repercussions. These uncertainties will move the currency either up or down 

Also recent reports shows Chinese GDP was lowest since 1990. Any further slip in Dragon's economy would trouble AUD.

• Tuesday, NAB Business Confidence: This National Australia Bank survey continues to head lower, as the reading of 3 in November was the weakest since May 2016. The slowdown in China could continue to way on business sentiment.

• Wednesday, CPI: CPI is the primary gauge of consumer spending. CPI has posted modest gains of 0.4% for three successive quarters, and the same gain is expected in Q4. Trimmed Mean CPI, which excludes the most volatile items, is also forecast to post a 0.4% gain.

• Thursday, Import Prices:  Prices of imported goods feed into consumer prices. The quarterly figure climbed by 1.9% in Q3.  A modest increase of 0.3% is the forecast for Q4. The number does not have a very significant impact on markets after the CPI was already published.

• Thursday, Private Sector Credit: The indicator dipped to 0.3% in December, its lowest level since July. Another gain of 0.3% is expected in January.

• Thursday, AIG Manufacturing Index: The Chinese slowdown has weighed on the manufacturing index, which indicated contraction in December, with a score of 49.5 points.

• Friday, PPI: This inflation indicator surprised in Q3 with a strong gain of 0.8%. This marked the sharpest gain since Q3 of 2015.

AUDUSD 28th January 2019 Asia Session

AUD Weekly Review January 21 ~ 25

A mixed week for the AUD when negative news of mortgage rate pulls down, a weaker USD give slight relief to Aussie close at 0.71812.

As the week starts and continue with bearish sentiment, Friday DXY dip below its strong support level of 96.00, sees AUD raise 1.24%. Correcting Aussie's downtrend upto 0.21%

Earlier on Thursday despite positive Job Report, National Australia Bank (NAB) increase standard variable mortgage rate pull back AUD to 0.7080 level.

Finally weaker greenback gives the Aussie little benefit of 0.00147.


This week January 21 ~ 25
  Open: 0.71665
  High: 0.71853
  Low: 0.70762
  Close: 0.71812
Swing: +0.00147 (+0.21%)

AUD USD 1 hour chart Jan 21 ~ 25

EURUSD This Week 21 ~ 25 January: Weaker US Dollar Gives Relief to Euro at 1.14045

Euro fully corrected to 1.4045 from yesterday's (Thursday, Jan 24th) close at 1.13056. But still failed to capitalize downtrend of US dollar, as DXY went past the strong support level of 96.00. Euro gained only 0.00989 yesterday.

German IFO Survey for the month of January disappointed expectations, as the key Business Climate component dropped further to 99.1. This and advanced manufacturing PMI, results added negatively in Germany and the euro bloc at whole.

Still 1.14000 mark is turn to be a support or resistance yet to be seen.

This week January 21 ~ 25
  Open: 1.13628
  High: 1.14179
  Low: 1.12893
  Close: 1.14045
Swing: +0.00418 (+0.37%)

EUR/USD January Weekly Chart 21 ~ 25

GBPUSD This Week 21 ~ 25 January: US Dollar Slide Helps Pound for 3 Months High

The sliding green back helps British Pound to reach three month high of $1.32171 and close at $1.31951.

The DXY slidded to 95.81, the lowest this week. The depressed US Dollar, consolidating below key short-term support level of 96.00, signaling that the slide could go on over the next few sessions. The US Dollar pressured by govt stand on its shutdown.

The British Pound reached its highest close in three months and fifth time out of last four days.

This week January 21 ~ 25
  Open: 1.28733
  High: 1.32170
  Low: 1.28310
  Close: 1.31951
Swing: +0.03218 (+2.50%)

GBPUSD 21 ~ 25 January 2019

GOLD Price This Week: January 21 ~ 25: Surpass $1300 Resistance

Until Friday a calm week, yellow metal was pivoted around $1,280/Oz. Even weaker US Dollar, US economic news and data flow went past quietly as a result of the US govt shutdown.

As Friday, GOLD regained its footing, after its recovery to $1,285 on Thursday. This gives traders a confidence to overcome strong rush of selling pressure.

The magic resistance $1,300.00 mark was tested right from new year, but supported at $1280.00. It was went below 1300 mark last June 2018. Now claimed back that level.

As we earlier said Only US Dollar index impact on GOLD price! , losing dollar makes gold stronger.

Hope this may stay this level until sometime.

This Week January 21 ~ 25

  Open: 1280.70
  High: 1303.98
  Low: 1276.93
  Close: 1302.91
Swing: +21.49 (+1.68%)

XAUUSD January 21 ~ 25 2019

Only US Dollar index impact on GOLD price!

US Dollar index (DXY) was down 0.16% to 96.137, contribute to current XAU/USD still in green at around 1,283.00

This little hike in Yellow Metal is also the result of traders wait for the outcome of Sino - US trade talks scheduled 29th January.

Wilbur Ross, U.S. Secretary of Commerce in an interview with CNBC that two powers remain 'miles and miles' apart on trade. He also acknowledged there is a 'fair chance' of a trade deal. 'Trade is very complicated. There are lots and lots of issues' Ross said.

Lawrence Kudlow, White House Economic Adviser, admits President Trump is optimistic about trade talks. Also Kudlow expected the January jobs report would be up a significant amount.

If January jobs report post a positive report, it may affect US Dollar index to go up again and GOLD will go down to 1,250.

XAUUSD 25th January 2019

GBP/USD: Bullish trend @ 1.31 Jan-25

The Pound gains against USD today after the news out about Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party is agreed to back PM Theresa May's Plan B Brexit following week. The Brexit is scheduled for debate and vote in British Parliament on Jan 29th.

If she able to win the vote that will back GBP further - beyond 1.32.

According to Michael McCarthy of CMC Markets, a technical breakout to 1.38 is also a possibility,

GBP/USD pair today trading around 1.3140, its best levels since November 2018.

GBP/USD Friday, January 25 2019

AUDUSD: Home Loan Rate Hike by National Australia Bank Knocks Aussie Dollar!

Earlier today (Thursday, 24 January 2019) Australian Dollar  rallied to 0.7167, as reports 21.6k jobs in December, beating the estimate of 18.0k jobs.

But this rally was short lived start to reverse downside after National Australia Bank (NAB) announced increase its standard variable mortgage rate for owner-occupier principal and interest (P&I) customers by 12 basis points to 5.36%.

Though NAB's hike still keep it as lowest among Australia's other banks. The  standard variable mortgage rates for Westpac at 5.38%, Commonwealth Bank at 5.37%. NAB stands equal with ANZ at 5.36%.

This is really a bad news for Australia's indebted households.

This knocked down the AUD/USD rally by 0.5% to 0.7105.

AUD/USD

Now 

Gold @ 1285.50. Rebound Likely?

Yellow metal is seen slight recovery from yesterday close at 1284.91 now trading around 1285.50.

Likely to go up slightly further, may reach 1252 as per 50-day moving average.

Talks about cancellation of meeting with Chinese officials also contribute to XAU price.

EUR/USD: Jan-23 2 weeks bearish move continues @ 1.1370

EUR/USD the weakened the greenback may further put down  the pair. Daily high @ 1.1373, low @ 1.1335. This is lowest since Jan 3.

Last Price: 1.1368
Daily change: -0.0001 pips
Daily change %: -0.01%
Daily Open: 1.1369

GBP/USD: Will it overstep 1.29?

As UK jobs and wages data will be released by 9.30 GMT will decide the next move. 

Firmer USD and May's plan B towards BREXIT will decide on British Pound whether it is going up 1.29 or not.

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.2879
    Today Daily change: -0.0015 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.12%
    Today Daily Open: 1.2894

Coinbase exec project Bitcoin to recover

Marcus Hughes, from cryptocurrency exchange and wallet provider Coinbase, anticipate Bitcoin to recover in 2019. 

He expect this because of U.K's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and EU's European Banking Authority (EBA) decided to standardize regulations for cryptocurrency and monitor its operations.

"We could end up with E.U. member states creating their own crypto laws, but it's certainly possible we'll get a unified approach in Europe," said Marcus Hughes. "It would make life for companies like Coinbase a lot easier."

Further he said  "We need to move beyond the speculation phase of bitcoin and cryptocurrency to the utility phase. The utility phase will mean bitcoin and crypto becomes more widely accepted and understood."

USD/INR: Commerzbank warns Indian Rupee may plummet further!

Strengthening Oil prices and Indian central bank RBI's need to meet government's political demand on the election year further weakens INR.

As 2019 USD-INR has popped above 70 now trading at 71.25 and may decline further in short future.

As Commerzbank quotes “There are uncertainties on how this will turn out. There are already signs that RBI is more willing to support the government’s initiatives. There were reports earlier this year that RBI will transfer an interim dividend of USD4.3-5.8bn to the government by March.”

These uncertainties force to take long position on USD/INR.

Happy Trading Folks :)