AUD USD: Weekly Review 25 February to 1 March 2019

AUD was bullish until Australian Bureau of Statistics release quarter to quarter Construction Work Done. Though it was slightly better than previous quarter (3.6 percent) much lower than expected value of 0.6 percent. The value is still better but way slipped than expected, the announcement start the bearish route. A 3.1 percent is much lower than expectations of economists as well as traders.

From that point all the way till market close total bearish. The Aussie supportive reasons like, formal suspension of the planned tariff increase on Chinese goods 'Until Further Notice' [decision by President Donald Trump to temporarily delay his Friday deadline] and Britons 'no deal' Brexit scenario announced by Prime Minister May have started losing its strength.

As AUD on bearish mostly against all major currencies on second half of the trading week, even a better Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) recovery - 54.0 points - cold not enough turn the currency to bullish.

AUD never recovered after unhealthy construction index.

Open (on Monday, 25 Feb 2019) 0.71252
High (on Wednesday, 27 Feb 2019) 0.71988
Low (on Friday, 1 Mar 2019) 0.70698
Close (on Friday, 1 Mar 2019) 0.70800

AUD USD: Weekly Review 11 to 15 February 2019

A quit week after opening at $0.70880 draw a green bar, by a little support from positive Aussie economic data, to close at $0.71400, a relatively small increase of $0.00520.

Though on Monday AUD start on risk sentiment, with doubt on risks related to US China trade wars, registered a loss of $0.00263.

AUD USD Weekly Review for the week February 11 to 15 2019

With all the pairs AUD performed well except New Zealand dollar thanks to dovish than expected Monetary Policy Statement on Wednesday.

On Thursday and Friday, AUD rallied steadily higher, after Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index 4.3% against January's -4.7%.

AUDUSD: Aussie Intraday Forecast 08 February 2019

Traders are in selling mood, the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) also released a much dovish SoMP (Statement of Monetary Policy) keep the Australian dollar in bearish mood.

RBA in a statement, revised downwardly its growth forecast for GDP substantially. In GDP forecast, RBA now projects 2.8 percent year to year for December 2018, 3.0 percent for December 2019, lesser 2.7 for December 2020 and same for December 2021.

Australian policy makers said the prospect of a rate hike or rate cut is more evenly balanced than previously thought. They also do not see any strong case to change rates in near future.

Australian Statement of Monetary Policy February 2019

As of 05:00 UTC the AUD trading at 0.7074 ~ 0.7075. As there no more events or news that can affect economy or traders mind, 0.70 may turn to be a support.

AUDUSD Strong selling mood of traders reflect in strong bearish movement.

The price may go up until 0.71xxx or go below 0.70xxx
The intraday forecast for AUDUSD:
Today opened at 0.71022, touched High of 0.71052, went Low to 0.70606

Right now struggling at 0.7.07 even though the traders are slowly changing mood from selling to buying. But being last day of the week, we cannot expect much change.

XAUUSD: Gold poised for deeper correction

Precious yellow metal poised for deeper correction, before stabilize to $1320.00
On Wednesday it closed on $1306.30 and now hovering at $1307~1308
Expected range today is 1303 ~ 1310
If GOLD raise to 1310 new support will be formed or new resistance will be formed around 1303.

XAUUSD hourly chart on 07 February 2019

AUDUSD Expected Interest Rates by RBA Kept Currency Positive

Aussie touches high today 0.72644, but struggling to keep momentum despite strong jobs projections. Now price floating around 0.724XX, unlikely much fluctuation today as there is no event that will affect the AUD/USD pair.

Seasonally adjusted Domestic Retail Sales dropped to 0.4 percent for December 2018 against estimated 0.5 percent. Trade surplus for Australia went upto 3681 Million A$ as imports drop of 6 percent.

As US - China trade talks gives optimistic outlook, also give AUD a little boost against greenback,
It is unlikely to reach or cross 0.7300 US Dollar.

AUD USD Hourly Chart 05 February 2019

GBPUSD Weekly Review Jan 28 ~ Feb 1 2019

Sterling pound is fully bearish except on Wednesday, following dovish FOMC.

British currency opens on Monday at 1.31830 and touches high sameday at 1.32118, but bearish force GBP to register red bar. On Friday it touches low point 1.30433, recovered a bit to close on 1.30744

After six bullish weeks in a row, gain of 4.0 percent, a 0.93 percent loss, due to traders confusion over British stand on BREXIT. Overall, British PM Theresa May failure to convince government stand, GBP failed to advantage of weaker US Dollar.

    Open (on Monday, 28 Jan 2019) 1.31830
    High (on Monday, 28 Jan 2019) 1.32118
    Low (on Friday, 1 Feb 2019) 1.30433
    Close (on Friday, 1 Feb 2019) 1.30744
Weekly loss of GBP (British Pound) against US Dollar is -0.01230 (-0.93 percent)

GBPUSD Hourly Chart Weekly Review 28th Jan to 1st Feb 2019

EURUSD Weekly Review Jan 28 ~ Feb 1 2019

Despite last Thursday (25th January) Euro sees a hike of nearly .9 percent in one day, failed to register same momentum following days. Warning signs from German and Italy also a concern that keep the currency bit lower, but still in bullish slopes.

Still a weaker greenback keep pushing Euro in green bar. As for as EURUSD, still who looses the race will be decided by 'weaker' currency.

Anyway, for the EUR/USD pair, it will be the battle of the 'less-weak' currency.

    Open (on Monday, 28 Jan 2019) 1.14000
    High (on Thursday, 31 Jan 2019) 1.15143
    Low (on Monday, 28 Jan 2019) 1.13901
    Close (on Friday, 1 Feb 2019) 1.14540
Weekly gain of Euro against US Dollar is +0.00482 (+0.42 percent)

EURUSD Hourly Chart 28th January to 1st February 2019

XAUUSD Weekly Review Jan 28 ~ Feb 1 2019

After breaking the psychological barrier and long time resistance $1300 by previous week, this week same resistance somehow turned into support. This week XAU traded above $1300, mostly bullish except Friday after USD get some relief and profit booking activity, finally closed at $1317.27. The price movement touched $1326, got some pullback only, unlike when GOLD touched this level last year, hit by a mass selling frenzy. But some traders profit booking urge is quite understandable.

After Friday's better than expected Non-Farm Payroll strengthening the greenback, slight reversal in precious yellow metal price, that too only 0.3 percent.

In overall it a fine weak for XAUUSD

Open (on Monday, 28 Jan 2019) 1303.00
High (on Thursday, 31 Jan 2019) 1326.30
Low (on Monday, 28 Jan 2019) 1297.85
Close (on Friday, 1 Feb 2019) 1317.27

XAUUSD Hourly Chart

AUDUSD Weekly Review Jan 28 ~ Feb 1 2019

AUDUSD start the week slowly, reddish on Monday and Tuesday by Wednesday, records a hike of 1.28 percent and touched peak high of 0.72593 on Thursday after Australian CPI data and correcting itself on Friday by closing itself at 0.72464. Still on green weekly bar which open at 0.71751, a 0.94 percent improvement.

Open (on Monday, 28 Jan 2019) 0.71751
High (on Thursday, 31 Jan 2019) 0.72593
Low (on Tuesday, 29 Jan 2019) 0.71380
Close (on Friday, 1 Feb 2019) 0.72464

On Friday US NFP surge for January pulls Aussie to close before AUD touches 0.73000

AUDUSD Weekly Review 28th January to 1st February 2019

Non-Farm Employment Payrolls Surge by 304,000 despite government shutdown

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports nonfarm payroll employment surge by 304,000 and unemployment rate up to 4.0 percent in January,

Nonfarm payrolls surging by 304,000, debilitate expectations 165,000 despite a government partial shutdown.

The unemployment went higher to 4 percent, moving from expected 3.9 percent.

It was a substantial show at a time when business analysts assumes to slowdown in 2019 January.

Non Farm Payroll @ 304,000 for january 2019

AUDUSD Chinese PMI Disturbs Bullish Trend!

Aussie declined from two month high 0.72952 after China's weaker Manufacturing PMI at 48.3 (expected 49.5), trading around 0.72365 and slowly recovering to  0.72600.

It also waiting for Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate to be announced in few hours. If there are any unexpected outcome will decide on AUDUSD signal as well.

AUDUSD Price affected by Chinese PMI

XAUUSD Weaker Greenback Pushing GOLD towards 1325 (31 JAN 2019)

US FED unchanged interest rate keep pushing precious yellow metal further towards 1325. Traders buying mood also keep this bullish momentum.

Opened at 1319.80, claimed upto 1326.30, remain just under 1325.

This January XAUUSD opened at 1282.80 and traced up by 3.35 percent.

XAUUSD Hourly chart on 31st January 2019

USDINR Advances Despite Dovish FED

Indian Rupee opened 70.93, Wednesday closed at 71.22 (0.22 percent lower), now trading at 71.10 (0.18 percent higher)

The US Federal Reserve didn't changed the interest rates as expected at 2.5 percent, the greenback shown dovish movement across the board. Despite this weaker Indian rupee cannot gain any.

Further to this, INR may come under further pressure Indian Government unveiling its interim budget for the 2019/20 fiscal year on Friday. Being a election year, the government may introduce some populist measures in interim budget.

Even exporters selling their earning of US currency, forex traders expect more foreign fund inflow will control surging crude oil prices.

Currently Rupee may touch 71.50 by tomorrow.

USDINR on 31st January 2019

AUDUSD Recover to Green after Aussie CPI

Australian Consumer Price Index came out beating expectations. The quarter to quarter is 0.5%, year to year is 1.8%. Whereas prior expectations was q/q is 0.4% and y/y was 1.7% as I mentioned in AUD Weekly Forecast.

Aussie CPI posted an increased 114.10 Index Points for 4th quarter of 2018 from 113.5 Index Points in 3rd quarter of 2018.

Also US Dollar Index struggles for directions on President Trump's stand on trade war with China and FED Shutdown. DXY is still around 95.x failing to catch up last quarter high.

Further US-China high level Trade Talks to avoid trade war President Trump planned to wage from March 1.

Overall AUD is highly correlated with DXY and it is all depend on Sino-US trade talks/war, stand on Shutdown.

Till then this small correction of +2% expected this January 2019.

AUDUSD Hourly Chart 30th January 2019

XAUUSD (GOLD) Afloats Above new support level 1300

Today GOLD opens at 1302.99 keep claiming touching 1311 and strong buying mood against weaker US Dollar continues. It seems long time resistance 1300 turns to be new support level.

On Monday GOLD price remains unchanged, the gain reached on last Friday. Have to see how the XAU reacts CB Consumer Confidence, which is estimated at 125.0

The US labour markets, for the first time since 1969 records below 200,000 mark. This continues to impress as unemployment claims dropped from 213,000 to 199,000, but failed to influence precious yellow metal price,

XAU USD 29th January 2019

Traders are Bearish on US Dollar. Waiting for Fed Policy Meeting Outcome!

US Dollar Index (DXY) is under stress from FOMC's FED policy meeting and trade talks with China. This pull further to 95.7, traders are cautious on green back waiting for policy outcome on wednesday. As stressed by President Trump if deal failed to raise fund for border wall, another shutdown is ‘certainly an option’.

For the three consecutive session, USD losing its strength from last week high of 96.7, following ECB President Mario Draghi remark.

We have to wait for Federal announcement about Trade Balance Figure, S&P / Case-Shiller Index, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence and weekly report on crude supplies by the API.

All currencies in US Dollar Index basket are doing well against green back.
Euro EUR/USD 1.14300
Japanese yen USD/JPY 109.400
Pound sterling GBP/USD 1.31569
Canadian dollar CAD/USD 0.7536
Swiss franc CHF/USD 1.00773

US Dollar Index (DXY) 

XAU Weekly Forecast Jan 28 ~ Feb 1. Will sustain above $1300 mark?

GOLD seen a remarkable week, as opened $1280.70 and close at $1302.91. Read further GOLD Review.

XAUUSD closed above magical mark $1300 last Friday. Since 15 June 2018 GOLD price remain below 1300 emotional level. Finally manage to breakout because of weaker USD.

This week seems to be real testing time for yellow metal as it has to try hard to turn 1300 resistance into support.

The outcome of 'Federal Open Market Committee' two day policy meeting on January 29 and 30 will affect the price.
The Federal Reserve System may hike rate, but some officials have recently adopted a more dovish tone.
US fourth quarter growth rate on Wednesday
U.S. government employment report for January on Friday
Ongoing US China trade war also have to end before deadline March 1.

XAU/USD Chart 28th January 2019

AUD Weekly Forecast Jan 28 ~ Feb 1

Green back's loss was ultimate gain by Aussie dollar.
Last Friday President Trump surprise move to agree to reopen the closed government services. This move sent a severe pull back for US dollar across all its peers.

Last week a strong Australian employment report is booster for AUD. The job created 21.6 thousands, pulled down unemployment to 5.0% from 5.1%.

These moves give the Aussie currency upward swing of 0.21% (0.00147) to close at 0.71812 against USD.

Another matter that will concern AUD is US China trade war. As largest trade partner, anything happens to China also will reflect in Australia economy. Current US threat to increase tariff  from March 1 and expected second round of trade talks in Washington this week will definitely have direct repercussions. These uncertainties will move the currency either up or down 

Also recent reports shows Chinese GDP was lowest since 1990. Any further slip in Dragon's economy would trouble AUD.

• Tuesday, NAB Business Confidence: This National Australia Bank survey continues to head lower, as the reading of 3 in November was the weakest since May 2016. The slowdown in China could continue to way on business sentiment.

• Wednesday, CPI: CPI is the primary gauge of consumer spending. CPI has posted modest gains of 0.4% for three successive quarters, and the same gain is expected in Q4. Trimmed Mean CPI, which excludes the most volatile items, is also forecast to post a 0.4% gain.

• Thursday, Import Prices:  Prices of imported goods feed into consumer prices. The quarterly figure climbed by 1.9% in Q3.  A modest increase of 0.3% is the forecast for Q4. The number does not have a very significant impact on markets after the CPI was already published.

• Thursday, Private Sector Credit: The indicator dipped to 0.3% in December, its lowest level since July. Another gain of 0.3% is expected in January.

• Thursday, AIG Manufacturing Index: The Chinese slowdown has weighed on the manufacturing index, which indicated contraction in December, with a score of 49.5 points.

• Friday, PPI: This inflation indicator surprised in Q3 with a strong gain of 0.8%. This marked the sharpest gain since Q3 of 2015.

AUDUSD 28th January 2019 Asia Session

AUD Weekly Review January 21 ~ 25

A mixed week for the AUD when negative news of mortgage rate pulls down, a weaker USD give slight relief to Aussie close at 0.71812.

As the week starts and continue with bearish sentiment, Friday DXY dip below its strong support level of 96.00, sees AUD raise 1.24%. Correcting Aussie's downtrend upto 0.21%

Earlier on Thursday despite positive Job Report, National Australia Bank (NAB) increase standard variable mortgage rate pull back AUD to 0.7080 level.

Finally weaker greenback gives the Aussie little benefit of 0.00147.


This week January 21 ~ 25
  Open: 0.71665
  High: 0.71853
  Low: 0.70762
  Close: 0.71812
Swing: +0.00147 (+0.21%)

AUD USD 1 hour chart Jan 21 ~ 25

EURUSD This Week 21 ~ 25 January: Weaker US Dollar Gives Relief to Euro at 1.14045

Euro fully corrected to 1.4045 from yesterday's (Thursday, Jan 24th) close at 1.13056. But still failed to capitalize downtrend of US dollar, as DXY went past the strong support level of 96.00. Euro gained only 0.00989 yesterday.

German IFO Survey for the month of January disappointed expectations, as the key Business Climate component dropped further to 99.1. This and advanced manufacturing PMI, results added negatively in Germany and the euro bloc at whole.

Still 1.14000 mark is turn to be a support or resistance yet to be seen.

This week January 21 ~ 25
  Open: 1.13628
  High: 1.14179
  Low: 1.12893
  Close: 1.14045
Swing: +0.00418 (+0.37%)

EUR/USD January Weekly Chart 21 ~ 25

GBPUSD This Week 21 ~ 25 January: US Dollar Slide Helps Pound for 3 Months High

The sliding green back helps British Pound to reach three month high of $1.32171 and close at $1.31951.

The DXY slidded to 95.81, the lowest this week. The depressed US Dollar, consolidating below key short-term support level of 96.00, signaling that the slide could go on over the next few sessions. The US Dollar pressured by govt stand on its shutdown.

The British Pound reached its highest close in three months and fifth time out of last four days.

This week January 21 ~ 25
  Open: 1.28733
  High: 1.32170
  Low: 1.28310
  Close: 1.31951
Swing: +0.03218 (+2.50%)

GBPUSD 21 ~ 25 January 2019

GOLD Price This Week: January 21 ~ 25: Surpass $1300 Resistance

Until Friday a calm week, yellow metal was pivoted around $1,280/Oz. Even weaker US Dollar, US economic news and data flow went past quietly as a result of the US govt shutdown.

As Friday, GOLD regained its footing, after its recovery to $1,285 on Thursday. This gives traders a confidence to overcome strong rush of selling pressure.

The magic resistance $1,300.00 mark was tested right from new year, but supported at $1280.00. It was went below 1300 mark last June 2018. Now claimed back that level.

As we earlier said Only US Dollar index impact on GOLD price! , losing dollar makes gold stronger.

Hope this may stay this level until sometime.

This Week January 21 ~ 25

  Open: 1280.70
  High: 1303.98
  Low: 1276.93
  Close: 1302.91
Swing: +21.49 (+1.68%)

XAUUSD January 21 ~ 25 2019

Only US Dollar index impact on GOLD price!

US Dollar index (DXY) was down 0.16% to 96.137, contribute to current XAU/USD still in green at around 1,283.00

This little hike in Yellow Metal is also the result of traders wait for the outcome of Sino - US trade talks scheduled 29th January.

Wilbur Ross, U.S. Secretary of Commerce in an interview with CNBC that two powers remain 'miles and miles' apart on trade. He also acknowledged there is a 'fair chance' of a trade deal. 'Trade is very complicated. There are lots and lots of issues' Ross said.

Lawrence Kudlow, White House Economic Adviser, admits President Trump is optimistic about trade talks. Also Kudlow expected the January jobs report would be up a significant amount.

If January jobs report post a positive report, it may affect US Dollar index to go up again and GOLD will go down to 1,250.

XAUUSD 25th January 2019

GBP/USD: Bullish trend @ 1.31 Jan-25

The Pound gains against USD today after the news out about Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party is agreed to back PM Theresa May's Plan B Brexit following week. The Brexit is scheduled for debate and vote in British Parliament on Jan 29th.

If she able to win the vote that will back GBP further - beyond 1.32.

According to Michael McCarthy of CMC Markets, a technical breakout to 1.38 is also a possibility,

GBP/USD pair today trading around 1.3140, its best levels since November 2018.

GBP/USD Friday, January 25 2019

AUDUSD: Home Loan Rate Hike by National Australia Bank Knocks Aussie Dollar!

Earlier today (Thursday, 24 January 2019) Australian Dollar  rallied to 0.7167, as reports 21.6k jobs in December, beating the estimate of 18.0k jobs.

But this rally was short lived start to reverse downside after National Australia Bank (NAB) announced increase its standard variable mortgage rate for owner-occupier principal and interest (P&I) customers by 12 basis points to 5.36%.

Though NAB's hike still keep it as lowest among Australia's other banks. The  standard variable mortgage rates for Westpac at 5.38%, Commonwealth Bank at 5.37%. NAB stands equal with ANZ at 5.36%.

This is really a bad news for Australia's indebted households.

This knocked down the AUD/USD rally by 0.5% to 0.7105.

AUD/USD

Now 

Gold @ 1285.50. Rebound Likely?

Yellow metal is seen slight recovery from yesterday close at 1284.91 now trading around 1285.50.

Likely to go up slightly further, may reach 1252 as per 50-day moving average.

Talks about cancellation of meeting with Chinese officials also contribute to XAU price.

EUR/USD: Jan-23 2 weeks bearish move continues @ 1.1370

EUR/USD the weakened the greenback may further put down  the pair. Daily high @ 1.1373, low @ 1.1335. This is lowest since Jan 3.

Last Price: 1.1368
Daily change: -0.0001 pips
Daily change %: -0.01%
Daily Open: 1.1369

GBP/USD: Will it overstep 1.29?

As UK jobs and wages data will be released by 9.30 GMT will decide the next move. 

Firmer USD and May's plan B towards BREXIT will decide on British Pound whether it is going up 1.29 or not.

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.2879
    Today Daily change: -0.0015 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.12%
    Today Daily Open: 1.2894

Coinbase exec project Bitcoin to recover

Marcus Hughes, from cryptocurrency exchange and wallet provider Coinbase, anticipate Bitcoin to recover in 2019. 

He expect this because of U.K's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and EU's European Banking Authority (EBA) decided to standardize regulations for cryptocurrency and monitor its operations.

"We could end up with E.U. member states creating their own crypto laws, but it's certainly possible we'll get a unified approach in Europe," said Marcus Hughes. "It would make life for companies like Coinbase a lot easier."

Further he said  "We need to move beyond the speculation phase of bitcoin and cryptocurrency to the utility phase. The utility phase will mean bitcoin and crypto becomes more widely accepted and understood."

USD/INR: Commerzbank warns Indian Rupee may plummet further!

Strengthening Oil prices and Indian central bank RBI's need to meet government's political demand on the election year further weakens INR.

As 2019 USD-INR has popped above 70 now trading at 71.25 and may decline further in short future.

As Commerzbank quotes “There are uncertainties on how this will turn out. There are already signs that RBI is more willing to support the government’s initiatives. There were reports earlier this year that RBI will transfer an interim dividend of USD4.3-5.8bn to the government by March.”

These uncertainties force to take long position on USD/INR.

Happy Trading Folks :)